Friday 25 October 2019

Lakshmi, Alakshmi and Richard Nixon

Today is Dhanteras. First day of Diwali celebrations.

This day belongs to Goddess Lakshmi. Homes are cleaned and decorated with rangoli.

Lakshmi pujan is conducted in the evening to welcome home this goddess of wealth and prosperity.

However, Dhanteras is actually celebrated in honour of God Dhanvantari. He is the god who imparted wisdom of Ayurveda for mankind's well being and to help them get rid of the suffering of diseases. (Wikipedia University)

But being an investor and a bania, I'll stick with the Lakshmi version of this festival :).

As per our family ritual, we worship wealth of our house, symbolized by old silver and other coins handed over by our great great grand parents. Coins of Ganpati, Lakshmi...



This year, I had a closer look at our family's coins collection. Apart from worshiping gods, we have also been worshiping ...



King George VI... and other British India coins dating as back as 1925!

We have also been worshiping Gandhi ji for last 40-50 years...




and also coins from the princely state of Hyderabad... from the days when it was ruled by Nizam!! (My grandmother's family home is in Hyderabad)



There are whole bunch of coins in our family gullak, old paisa to naya paisa. Each generation has added their coins to it. We have been worshiping our family "wealth" of at least last 100 odd years or around 4-5 generations.



Times have changed, regimes have changed, faces on coins have changed. These coins are probably worthless now (though some may fetch antique value in today's money).

But we continue worshiping and inviting Lakshmi to our home each year in whatever form she takes.

There is a little story about Lakshmi and her sister Alakshmi that I would like to share.

Alakshmi is visualized as an owl seated beside Lakshmi, Alakshmi is a secret goddess, invisible to all. The only way to see her is to have Saraswati, goddess of knowledge and good sense by your side. But Lakshmi will never let Saraswati stay in the same house as her. She will go wherever there is Saraswati and kick her out, making room for Alakshmi.

Why does she do that, one wonders. But then one is told that Lakshmi is a whimsical goddess, she does not like to stay in one place too long. By kicking Saraswati out and by getting Alakshmi in, she ensures there is a fight in the house and when there is a fight, wealth invariably moves out of a house. But if Saraswati is in the house, good sense prevails, fights do not take place and Lakshmi is unable to move out.
Source: Devdutt Pattnaik https://devdutt.com/articles/the-rise-of-alakshmi/

That's the nature of wealth. It likes to flow and does not like to sit idle or does not like to be hoarded. It's not in our interest as well to hoard it.

Value of money is when it is exchanged.

So this Dhanteras, understand Lakshmi's nature. Let her flow. Spend money for the benefit of others. Invest money for the benefit of others. Don't let her sit around. We are nothing but trustees of whatever wealth we hold, for the brief time that we are here on earth.

Else, our grand kids will be left with such metal pieces. Or worse, in today's digital world, some useless algorithms..

Happy Dhanteras! May you stay blessed with HEALTH (first) and WEALTH.

The End...

If you are not bored, you can continue. Something for the investing nerds...

I will contradict a bit myself now.

I don't know the value of these coins today, but they have probably done their job of holding their value. Back then, coins represented value of their metal constituents. So a silver coin of 1 gram had equivalent value vs. say 10 coins of copper weighing 10 gms. This ratio was largely held with most of them linked to gold. I believe value of those metals still holds the same in today's money terms.

Then came currency notes which promised to pay the bearer some fixed amount of gold.

But that changed post 1971 when money or rather currency became fiat. Earlier, currency was backed by real gold or their value was at least linked to gold. Post US President Richard Nixon's announcement in 1971, currency was no longer money. (read this again)...

     Pre-Nixon $ was convertible into gold            Post Nixon, it is "Ram Bharose" (pun intended)



Money used to be decentralized for 5000 years of its existence i.e. no one told us the value of it nor anyone controlled supply of it.

Now it is centralized. Today a currency note or coin is used as money because government says it is money. One fine day, government can decide that X is not money, but Y is. And you have to live with that. You wealth is at the whims of government. Remember demonetisation?

But people have continued to treat currency as money.

Anyways, as we have seen above, times change, regimes change and what is considered as money can also change.

But one commodity has stood test of time for 5000 years.

That's Gold.

What has not changed is how people view gold as. Even during the time of demonetisation, gold was money. Even when government bans it, gold will remain a currency. (remember 70s movies smuggling in gold?)

Directly or indirectly, it is still considered as money. A hedge against money printing by government. Gold price grew by CAGR of 12% over last 20 years in INR terms. Bank credit growth (~money printing) has been around 13-14% during the same period!

In today's world of global uncertainties where central bankers and governments are doing stupid things and are being careless about money, it is prudent to have a reasonable portion of your family wealth, especially out of your cash and fixed income allocation, towards gold.

May be that's why gold buying is part of Dhanteras ritual. Our ancestors have probably seen many such foolish kings and governments.

May Lakshmi keep paying you visit...

Final The End...

Friday 31 May 2019

Bigg Boss






Lot of us has enjoyed this show... its a fun show.... just those 10 - 15 people.... trapped in a small world of their own... no outside contact .... just operating on a voice command of a guy whom they can't even see...

The show actually is an Indian version of Dutch show called Big Brother, which itself is based on George Orwell's classic novel called 1984.


                                                      

1984 is a story set in a dystopian world called Oceania, which is ruled by a "Party" that employ something called as "Thought Police" to persecute individualism and independent thinking.

The people of that country are under constant surveillance of Big Brother or the government....

Government controls everything... what people do, what they eat, how they should dress... what they see.. what they read... how they behave... and ultimately... what they think!

In a way... "Big Brother" is so deeply penetrated into individual's mind that it controls what he is and how he lives his life... 

Bigg Boss is a mickey mouse version of this world.... 

Situations are created for the contestants that triggers emotions within them... 

That's why on the show you have...


Romance.....


Laughter...




fun...


anger.... 



lots of anger....




and of course.... you also have....

...

..



...



...

Sunny Leone...


....


I also wanted to experience Bigg Boss.... and hence, sometime during February, I got myself into a similar situation...


I did Vipassana...


and this was my daily schedule for 10 days...



4.00 am  - Wake Up!

4.30 - 6.30 am - Meditation

6.30 - 8.00 am - Breakfast and Daily Chores

8.00 am - 11.00 am - Meditation

11.00 am - 1.00 pm - Lunch and Rest

1.00  - 5.00 pm - Meditation

5.00 - 6.00 pm - Tea and Fruits

6.00 - 7.00 pm - Meditation

7.00 - 8.15 pm - SN Goenka’s Discourse

8.30 - 9.00 pm - Meditation

9.30 pm - Lights off!


Meditation 10.5 hours.... 2 full meals... breakfast and lunch.... and just some fruits and tea in the evening.... that too only for first timers... repeaters got only lemon water in as their evening intake... and ... 1 hour of "entertainment" by SN Goenka ji

and ye... all this without uttering a word... Arya Maun.... no speaking... no gestures... no communication by any means with anybody else...

Just like Bigg Boss contestants are given tasks that bring out their inner self (for other's entertainment)... I was also given one simple task...

Observe my breath...

as it is... no mantras... no chanting... just observe it... simple ehhh....



Why did I did this??



To feel something like this...





But by the time my first day ended.... I actually felt something like this....

..


...


....



By second and third day end... I was like...

..


...

....





I was in constant pain... pain in my back... my legs.. my neck... I was cursing myself for getting into this.... I was wasting 9 office leaves for this!!!

I even calculated ... these 10 days are like 0.1% of my remaining life... and I am sitting here in pain.... doing nothing...



But I continued... and that's when I realized... a simple task of observing my own breath... even for 2-3 seconds at a stretch... even after practicing this for 3 days... was the most difficult task I have ever done...

The thoughts just kept coming automatically... I bloody have no control over it...

All these years... I felt I was the one who was doing the thinking... I am the master of my mind... but there I realized... I don't have any control over what I think...


Even when I was just sitting in one place.... observing my breath... I was getting all these emotions...

I sometimes had sadness... sometimes feared for my son... had anger about my roommate at Vipassana... anxious about what's happening with my stocks portfolio... sometimes I was cracking jokes in my head about people around...


And of course... like Big Boss.... 








there was Sunny Leone as well...


                                                 


And that's where I realised... there actually is a Bigg Boss within me as well... on automatic mode... constantly telling me how I should feel about a situation... what should I say... how should I behave...

Slowly and steadily I gained focus... and as I observed more... I started to experience all these sensations all over my body... itching, pain, heat, colt, tickling sensations... vibrations... some sensations I don't even have words to describe... but I experienced them... 

What was happening??

...

Time for some theory...



We constantly use our 6 senses as an input to perceive the world around us and try to make sense of it.. 

Mind being what we would call as thinking or intuition or guess or a hunch...

When they are at work, I get sensations all over my body... and because these senses work constantly, I felt sensations constantly as well… 

Why don't we feel these sensations in our day to day life??

Because of Bigg Boss.... and Bigg Boss actually is a monkey...




a kind of monkey that constantly wants our attention... it constantly wants to jump from one branch to the other... one thought to the other... 

I tell it that I want to sit and observe the breath... that's why I am here for.... but the monkey comes and tells me... 

that guy farted!! 

Ain't that funny... let's crack a joke on that... you gotta tell that to your friends... know what... lets play a game... lets count how many people fart in next 15 mins... this is post lunch session... i am sure we will have a blast... pun intended... oh man I kill myself... 



And so went my one full session... doing what it pleased the monkey...


(By the way there were 12 farts in 15 mins... as I said... post lunch session...)

... 


Anyways... coming back to theory... these senses basically act as an input from things external to us...


We then perceive or feel a situation that we are in.. The neurotic connections in our brain processes this information and help us form an understanding or make a view or opinion about our current situation…

A thought arises followed by actions by way of speech or body language… ultimately impacting how we live… 

Most of the times… these things are controlled by monkey… Imagine… a monkey controlling how how we behave… how we act with others… 

But thats true.. That’s what happens…

                               

Monkey keeps on showing us something "interesting" … or something new… or something fun… something that we should be worried about… something that we should have done this way… something that we should do… "I should have told him blah blah... and shown him his place"...

Taking us either in the past or in the future… anywhere else, but HERE… in the present moment...

....

And that’s what Vipassana made me experience…. What it is like to be here… NOW… in the present moment… The sensations I felt on my body… whatever thoughts that came to my mind are ANITYA or impermanent... and their only nature is to arise and fall… And for something whose nature is to be impermanent… why to react to it? Why to take it so seriously??? Why to let it impact how I live and behave??

...

A Bad News and A Good News

Bad news is that the monkey ain't going anywhere... it will always stay with you..

But the good news is that there are ways to tame it... and each one us have an ability to detach that Bigg Boss voice from our head...

All that I discussed here is only good as intellectual talk... but freeing your mind from the voice of Bigg Boss is an experiential journey...

Just like how you got you can swim or cycle ... by actually doing it...

You can only get to know your Bigg Boss... and what it is like to detach those monkey thoughts and your actions... your life... by actually experiencing it on your own...

As Sri Sri Morpheous Baba has said...



Walk through the door... it's worth it...

Thank you...


Thursday 24 January 2019

Whose mind is it anyway


Whose Mind Is It Anyway!
Relax | Black and White Blobs | Robo Rats | Headbanging Caterpillar 

(read in sequence, please don't scroll down)


Before we begin, lets have a "thought experiment" :)
...
.

Rest yourself. Relax. Be in a place where you are not disturbed.
...
.

Now close your eyes and focus on your thoughts... just observe them... let them come and let them go... don't resist them... just be there for couple of mins and come back here...
...


.

.


.

Please do, would be worth it
...

.

.


So what did you experience? Where did your thoughts began? Where did they actually end up? Where all did you wander?
...


Let's do something again... Go in the same space and...




DON'T THINK...



Yes... just stop thinking about anything. Be thoughtless and come back....

..


Do it, I am waiting... :)




How was it?


If you were able to keep your mind away from a any thought.. you need not read any further. You have attained bliss :). Others, mere mortals, you may continue...

So what are these thoughts? Where do they come from?

What happens when we say we are thinking?

Do we control what we are going to think? How free are we when it comes to thinking?


"It may sound extremely complicated, but it is surprisingly easy to test this idea. Next time a thought pops up in your mind, stop and ask yourself: ‘Why did I think this particular thought? Did I decide a minute ago to think this thought, and only then did I think it? Or did it just arise in my mind, without my permission or instruction? If I am indeed the master of my thoughts and decisions, can I decide not to think about anything at all for the next sixty seconds?’Just try, and see what happens."
- Yuval Noah Harari in Homo Deus

This post is about how thoughts come to us and how they shape what we do. 

For this, I am relying on some books and articles that I have read, especially Sapiens, Homo Deus, Thing Fast and Slow, Power of Now, etc. along with certain other programs and experiences that I have gone through that has helped me look at my own thought patterns. Hence, strictly based on desktop research and hypotheses that I carry. These are just some musings that I am sharing.

Small Voice

We all have a small voice. Something that reside in our mind. This is probably the same voice that just asked "What small voice?"

Its a constant process whereby the biochemicals or electric signals in our brain are constantly evaluating the world around us, trying to give us an edge to survive. These signals just try to guess the situation that we are in by looking back in its "Experience Bank", trying to make a sense of it.

But what if certain situation is not in your experience bank?

Here's an example... can you tell what this is?




What do you see here??

Right now, your brain is probably going crazy and dipping into your experience bank and trying to make a sense of this picture... trying to guess what best these black and white blobs are are. This is what our mind does always, trying to look for a pattern from the past for a situation that we are in.

Kids don't know that they have to be careful while crossing the road or to be careful with hot stove cause they don't have any pattern concerning these life situations.

However, when they experience what its like touching a hot stove or when they learn from other's experience, like watching it on TV or parents' constant nagging about being careful on the road, they form a pattern of this bad experience or in other words form an "opinion".

Thus, as we grow up, our millions and trillions of experiences, conscious or unconscious, shape which of our neurons get fired when we are in a "similar" situation. A lot depends not on what you have seen in this world, but more on what the world has shown you.
(Did we actually choose to get goose bumps and feel proud when we see Indian flag fluttering high in mountains with the patriotic music running in the background?)

This automatic process of constantly assessing your life situation is that "small voice" that keeps on running in your head, constantly dictating how "you" should be reacting, behaving and feeling!

By the way, if your pattern seeking mind is still trying to guess what those black and white blobs were in the above picture.. it was ...

...

.

.




"The world" has now shown you what those black and white blobs are. Now that its in your experience bank.. when you look at this picture or another random black and white patterns again...



the small voice will probably tell you its a snake .. and that you should feel in a way how you generally feel when you look at a snake picture... (even when this picture actually is not a snake!)

This is just a small example. But there are constant events that happen in our life whereby our brain neurons get fired in a certain way, shaping our thoughts and beliefs that drive our own behavior and decisions.


Decisions

Get present to what all you are doing right now... physically...

slouching on a chair?... biting nails?... scratching?... where are your hands?... how are your legs placed?

Did you decide to do all that?

We all have some small habit that keeps us comforted and lowers our anxiety.

Again, these are the small things. But do we do the same things when it comes to big decisions from our life? Do we have fixed patterns on how we decide onto things?

Whatever we decide to do, consciously or unconsciously, the same mechanism is at work. Decisions are nothing but predictions and best guesses, based on again, our experience bank.


"Predictions are basically the way your brain works. It’s business as usual for your brain. Predictions are the basis of every experience that you have. They are the basis of every action that you take." 
 - Lisa Feldman Barrett, Neuroscientist


It is this prediction business of mind that chooses emotions, decisions and how we react to situations for us. A lot of decisions and actions are already decided by the small voice even before we actually "think" of taking a decision... A lot of decisions about a person are already taken (or opinions formed) for a person even before we speak with them...

The small voice actually is faint voice. We can listen to it only faintly, that too when we actually sit down to not think at all. (remember "don't think anything" experiment above?). A vast magnitude of the small voice is hidden deep inside in our neural patterns, some of which are even primal, like hogging onto as much sweets as we can, whenever we find them.

So, based on above, do we control anything? Do we really have a free will..

Yuval Noah Harari has articulated the free will pretty well.
(caution - this may actually be a bit depressing thought :) )

"Today we can use brain scanners to predict people’s desires and decisions well before they are aware of them. In one kind of experiment, people are placed within a huge brain scanner, holding a switch in each hand. They are asked to press one of the two switches whenever they feel like it. Scientists observing neural activity in the brain can predict which switch the person will press well before the person actually does so, and even before the person is aware of their own intention. Neural events in the brain indicating the person’s decision begin from a few hundred milliseconds to a few seconds before the person is aware of this choice. The decision to press either the right or left switch certainly reflected the person’s choice. Yet it wasn’t a free choice. In fact, our belief in free will results from faulty logic. When a biochemical chain reaction makes me desire to press the right switch, I feel that I really want to press the right switch. And this is true. I really want to press it. Yet people erroneously jump to the conclusion that if I want to press it, I choose to want to. This is of course false. I don’t choose my desires. I only feel them, and act accordingly. 

For example, robo-rats could help detect survivors trapped under collapsed buildings, locate bombs and booby traps, and map underground tunnels and caves. Animal-welfare activists have voiced concern about the suffering such experiments inflict on the rats. Professor Sanjiv Talwar of the State University of New York, one of the leading robo-rat researchers, has dismissed these concerns, arguing that the rats actually enjoy the experiments. After all, explains Talwar, the rats ‘work for pleasure’ and when the electrodes stimulate the reward centre in their brain, ‘the rat feels Nirvana’. To the best of our understanding, the rat doesn’t feel that somebody else controls her, and she doesn’t feel that she is being coerced to do something against her will. When Professor Talwar presses the remote control, the rat wants to move to the left, which is why she moves to the left. When the professor presses another switch, the rat wants to climb a ladder, which is why she climbs the ladder. After all, the rat’s desires are nothing but a pattern of firing neurons. What does it matter whether the neurons are firing because they are stimulated by other neurons, or because they are stimulated by transplanted electrodes connected to Professor Talwar’s remote control? If you asked the rat about it, she might well have told you, ‘Sure I have free will! Look, I want to turn left – and I turn left. I want to climb a ladder – and I climb a ladder. Doesn’t that prove that I have free will?"



Time for some creepiness

Recently I came across a creepy TED talk by Ed Young (watch here). It is about discovery of certain parasites, animals and organisms that live on bodies and brains (yes brains!) of other animals and organisms and control their neural networks for their own benefits.

There are parasitic wasps that lay eggs in caterpillar's head. The eggs that hatch eventually go on to control caterpillars brain to defend their siblings, making caterpillar bang its head... a headbanging caterpillar... put on some rock music and see the below video..


There are examples of parasites that make crickets and grasshoppers drown in water (suicide mission!).

There is an example of Toxoplasma Gondii (pyaar se usse Toxo bulaate hai) which infect mammals. When Toxo infects rat or a mouse, it makes them into cat seeking missiles.

"If the infected rat smells the delightful odor of cat piss, it runs towards the source of the smell rather than the more sensible direction of away."

"This thing is a single cell. This has no nervous system. It has no consciousness. It doesn't even have a body. But it's manipulating a mammal? We are mammals. We are more intelligent than a mere rat to be sure, but our brains have the same basic structure, the same types of cells, the same chemicals running through them and the same parasites."


The idea that Ed Young wanted to present was that these "manipulations" are common in the world around us and there are chances that even we can be infected by such parasites considering our construct as a mammal is same as that of rats or a mouse.

"...opinion is divided as to whether the parasite is truly influencing our (humans) behavior. But given the widespread nature of such manipulations, it would be completely implausible for humans to be the only species that weren't similarly affected."


Whose mind is it anyway?

Mind or brain is nothing but a hardware that fires some biochemicals or electric pulses to make us happy or sad. It process its information much like a PC or a mobile phone on which you are reading this (A bit exaggeration, but you get the point).

Do we actually control how and when these neurons fire? Do we really choose how we behave? Do we really decide what we want? Or we are made to do something?

We don't!

Our thoughts, our actions are shaped by things external to us. So can we call it ours?

However, we have something which probably no other life form has. Something that can help us re-wire and create. But that's probably a discussion for some other post.

But what I'll do is just leave you with a quote from the movie Inception.

Image result for an idea is like a virus


Sources:
https://vialogue.wordpress.com/2018/01/03/ted-lisa-feldman-barrett-you-arent-at-the-mercy-of-your-emotions-your-brain-creates-them/

https://www.wbur.org/npr/470535665/can-we-fall-prey-to-hidden-parasites
various other web sources, books and articles.




Tuesday 16 October 2018

The more things change, the more they stay the same



"The more things change, the more they stay the same"
Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr

In a nutshell, this is my take from The Match King, a book on Ivar Kreuger by Frank Partnoy.

The official name of the book is "The Match King: Ivar Kreuger and The Financial Scandal of the Century." It tries to bring out a long forgotten "scandal" from the period of 1920s rapid expansion in US, followed by The Great Depression. Ivar Kreuger is the "architect" of this scam, whose story is well captured in this pleasant narrative.

Hailing from a small Swedish town. Ivar went on to control 3/4th of world match sticks production. He became one of the largest financier, taking over from Jack Morgan (son of JP Morgan), and bailed out many war torn (WW 1) European governments. 

After establishing match monopoly by borrowing and consolidating the industry in Sweden, Ivar sets out for US with a brilliant idea. Because of stringent monopoly regulations in US, there were no major monopolies for US citizens to invest in. Enter Ivar, who has ability to raise capital and lend it to European countries, in return for match monopolies in those countries. In return, there was a promise of high dividends for the optimistic American investors.

This was the time of poor disclosure norms for listed entities. Financial statements were at best a page long, and that too infrequent.

"In 1926, only 242 of 957 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange published quarterly reports. Nearly a third of listed companies did not issue reports at all, primarily because they had been members of the Exchange for many years and had nondisclosure agreements that were grandfathered from when they first joined. Newly listed companies filed quarterly reports, but they lacked detail. Listing requirements varied by company and were open to negotiation."

This was also the time of 1920s where optimism of Americans were running high.

"Radio sales doubled in 1923, then tripled in 1924. On average, nearly every family had a car, and drivers were branching out from black Model Ts to an assortment of new makes in colors ranging from “Florentine cream” to “Versailles violet.” Average people bought items they hadn’t imagined spending money on just a few years earlier: from Listerine mouthwash and crossword puzzle books to vacuum cleaners and meat slicers to new golf clubs and even property in Florida."

"As stock trading became more popular during the early 1920s, so did this kind of cognitive error, and the widespread passion about markets led investors to focus on winners more than losers, like gamblers who vividly remembers cashing a winning ticket from a particular race at the horse track, but conveniently forgets that she lost money overall."

This was the perfect time for Ivar to raise money with his "too good to be true" offering and he orchestrated this amazingly well. The book claims that he was inspired by Charles Ponzi. But unlike Ponzi, he intended to create real businesses and assets and not defraud anyone.

All this was made possible with multiple holding companies and subsidiaries in different countries and havens. This ensured that there were multiple auditors with limited sight. Innovations like "B shares" helped him keep the control and keep raising money.

Throughout his efforts went in managing his and his investment's perception in order to keep raising money and pay high dividends to older investors along with purchasing business interests.

"He knew markets reflected emotions and perception. In finance, there was no such thing as reality. There was only, as Pierpont Morgan had intimated, what traders thought of a man's character. If everyone saw Ivar as shining beacon of confidence, his securities would maintain their value, even if the rest of the market crashed."

But as it happens each time, with 1929 crash, things started to become tight. Panic reined in and liquidity dried up. People's optimism started to fade away and questions poured in about how Ivar is earning so much.

He was cornered when he failed to raise incremental money at a critical due date. The result, he shot himself, leaving all the mess for his bankers and investors and governments to clear.

His death brought in "changes" in the system in US. A new Securities Act was passed in 1933. A year later, Securities Exchange Act, which created Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). This act also gave american shareholders a right to sue the companies for fraud. One of the most important and controversial right.

World has seen many regulations come in with respect to raising money and protecting the interests of shareholders. The disclosure norms have become highly standardized and stringent. In fact, non-reporting of results has now become a major red flag on the company. Yet, time and again, we have seen frauds being committed by companies world over. World continues to encounter Ivars and resultant financial scandals.

As author says, "Financial scandals are complicated and their investigations typically lead to the search for a human face: John Law of the Mississippi Scheme, Robert Harley of the South Sea Bubble, Michael Milken of Drexel Burnham Lambert, Jeff  Skilling of Enron, or Bernard Madoff . Ivar Kreuger became the face of the International Match scandal".

There are things certainly beyond a face committing a fraud.

This book and every mania shows that a fraud is a culmination of entire system. Overeager investors, sloppy auditors, independent directors, vague regulations, lack of law enforcement, etc. Each scandal brings with it a new lesson, new regulations and new systems.

But the underlying fundamental principles remain the same, driven by how people behave. History keeps on rhyming and things remain the same.

Overall, a worthy read to understand how scandals (or unsustainable businesses) build up bit by bit, over the years, and how they keep getting fragile with time, before their ultimate collapse.
   

Saturday 7 October 2017

An Old Chaddi Worth Millions




The moment I heard "Jungle jungle baat chali hai.....", I got goosebumps. It brought back all the memories from my childhood. Those Sunday 7.30 evenings started flashing in front of my eyes, when I used to wait for this song to play on TV and watch my favorite show The Jungle Book.

Listening to this song made me immediately decide that I will be watching the 2016 remake of The Jungle Book on the very first weekend. I decided that this will be my 3 years old son's first movie in a theater hall.

I did go and enjoyed the movie to the fullest. I was happy to see my son sitting on the isle besides our seats, with a tub full of popcorn, trying to identify animals in the movie. I not only cherished an old memory, but created a new memory.

What happened to me?

I was getting a sense of nostalgia. It's called as a desire to return in thought or in fact to a former time, to one's homeland or to an old relation. It returns you to happy time lived in the past. It activates release of happy chemicals like dopamine. No wonder that one yearns to go back again and again.

There are many such songs and things that have made a come back in my life over last few years that makes me nostalgic. Tamma Tamma, Tan Tana Tan Tan Taara, etc. (It is said that music is a powerful source of nostalgia). There are  many products that I have seen and had desire of having or owning since I was a child. A bongo, a mechanical kit, having a pet dog, eating Maggi, etc.

These are highly emotional bonds that I have with these memories. However, at the end of the day,  all these are consumer products. They fetch a value. I don't mind spending money on them, just to make myself relive those moments. These products carry what I call as Nostalgia Value.

The moment I saw The Jungle Book song, apart from deciding to go for this movie, it also struck me that this movie will earn at least Rs 100 crores because of this song itself. It ended up being the highest Hollywood grosser in India with collections of Rs 250 crores.

This is the power of nostalgia. The memories and emotions from childhood becomes a valuable source of income for the product owners. They own my memories. Because I am the decision maker now, because I have the spending power, I get to make myself happy by reliving those moments. This emotional bonds are very hard to make. But once made, it provides the product with longevity. The product owner can monetize my feelings purely based on that emotion attached to it. It's a durable bond.

This is how an old chaddi song made millions from Indians.

(By the way, the song Tan Tana Tan Tan Tan Tara also made me shell out Rs 500 this weekend. This is despite reading bad reviews about the movie. It has also entered Rs 100 crores club.)

Maggi could make a come back after getting banned by striking an emotional chords. It enjoys 30+ years of bonds with today's earners and decision makers. Remember #WeMissYouToo campaign?



I am sure Patanjali noodles would find it difficult to make a comeback if something unwanted is found in its packets.

Products and brands like Royal Enfield, Vespa, Nokia, etc. could think of making a come back purely by banking on this nostalgia feeling that it enjoys among its erstwhile users / aspirers.

Though there are things beyond nostalgia that are at play as well, like relevance of product, scale at which it can operate, re-investments required, etc. that one needs to be mindful about. People have memories with Jawa Yezdi as well, but it depends on many other conditions if M&M will be able to resurrect those emotions from people's mind.

All in all, a business owning such emotional connects needs to be considered as a strong business. These emotions are hard to build and generally are very durable source of competitive advantages. They carry a story. Even if knocked down, they have a capability of coming back.

India is a young country. Median age of Indians is around 26-27 years. This is the age when people start to earn and get their spending powers.This is also the age when prime nostalgia forming age of 12-22 years is passed. Products and services that help people relive their adolescent moments can thus be highly valuable. Look out for them.

Tuesday 22 November 2016

A DeMo of CAS

"The whole village could not sleep. Even I was under stress as to what will happen. I had Rs 2,000 in 500 notes."

This was our young guide Raksha on what was the situation the day government announced demonetisation of 500 and 1000 notes. We were on a village home stay last trip last weekend. Raksha was our guide and was on a long Diwali break from her college in Wada.


When asked what's the impact of demonetisation on the people of small hamlet called Dehene (Maharashtra), she informed that most people here do not have so much money. People have been able to exchange money at a bank in Dolkham, a town 10 kms away from that village. On inquiring with other villagers, it appears that not all of their money is exchanged as yet. They are not able to even withdraw money from banks. Bank has been running low on cash. "Don't know when we will be able to exchange all the money. Who will go Dolkham everyday and stand in queue", said another villager.


They have not been able to move their harvest as well. Predominantly rice and nachni producing region, people here are unable to move goods easily because of cash crunch and uncertainty.


This village though may not be entirely dependent on agriculture. Many males from the village work in Mumbai or other town. Raksha's uncle Dashrath in fact works at a hydro power plant some 15 kms away. Being base village for Aaja parvat trek and such home stay initiatives, people here are not dependent on agriculture for their income. It is a seasonal occupation here and only surplus harvest is sold. Thus, Dehene may not be an ideal rural India to gauge impact of demonetisation in hinterlands.


But people here seemed happy that those with lots of money are losing sleep and being punished for their greed. Just like most salaried and organised players feel in the city. "The adhikaries would be spending sleepless nights. It is a good step by Modi" said Raksha.


Though it emerged that adhikaries there as well seems to be trying to find loopholes and convert their black money into legal tenders by depositing money in different names, distributing among keen, etc. (made me think if these influential people, who can misuse their position, be the reason for cash crunch at banks?)


So what will be the full impact? Will black money cease? Will unorganised economy turn organised? Will corruption go away? Does the costs involved justify potential tangible and intangible benefits?


It appears that I was left clueless even after my short on the road (toll less :-) )trip.


Google search says that the word "Complex", when used as an adjective means:


1. consisting of many different and connected parts.

2. denoting or involving numbers or quantities containing both a real and an imaginary part.

This is indeed a complex situation. An economy in itself is a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). A system made up of many micro level, partially connected structures that intermingle. The result of these intermingling is not a simple aggregation (i.e. not 1+1=2) but something different altogether. These micro level structures self organize to systemic changes or change initiating events with the intent of survival. This process results in increased survivability or robustness of macro structure. Demonetisation is one such change initiating event.


Trying to outguess outcomes or arrive at a linear "logical" consequences can be a futile exercise. Thus statements like "there will be short term pain, but good for the economy over long term" should be read as "I don't know, but this seems to be most likely scenario". Yes, our logic states that things will move from unorganised to organised will be better for the economy over long term. But there can also be any unknown unknowns that can work against this move. How will micro systems learn and reorganise? What impact each micro system will have on others? What will be the end result on the adaptive system called economy when things settle? Only time can tell.


In that sense, as an alternate view, government reacting to situation by bringing in new rules every day, as situations unfold, is a better strategy as compared to "pre-plan" everything and then implement. When we are dealing with CAS, one can never be fully prepared.


How things will unfold, only time will tell. All we can do is try to arrive at most likely scenarios (plural) and adapt accordingly.


As an investor, I have learned that stock market (a complex adaptive system in itself) does not like uncertainty and is currently reacting to that. It will take its time to learn and organise itself from this event. There will be winners and there will be losers as the system tries to improve its robustness. Some people will be able to pick winners (Investing falls towards luck side of luck-skill conundrum) and will be called geniuses few years down the line whereas some will return to mediocrity. All one can try and do is have a process and build a portfolio with enough diversity of robust companies and try and improve portfolio survivability.